As an observer of local politics for the last 15 years, one question seems to persist over the years - why do conservatives do so well in the initiative process, while progressives do quite poorly? Conservative measures have steadily eroded state funding (Measure 5), increased mandatory prison sentences for violent offenders (Measure 11), and restricted zoning measures (Measure 37). Progressives have had more modest successes - Death with Dignity, crime victim’s rights, and hunting restrictions. Indeed, the biggest progressive successes have come in beating back conservative measures, particularly on land use, repeal of Death with Dignity, parental notification, and by restricting payment by signature on petitions. Why haven’t progressives done more to take the initiative on initiatives?

One good reason for conservative success is quite simple - they cheat, deceive and use financial incentives. Bill Sizemore’s electoral shenanigans have made the news for years, but his measures keep making the ballot. They also use deceptive or incomplete information to mislead voters. For instance, Kevin Mannix has billed his current measure as “tough on property crime”, as will certainly be reflected in the ballot title. An honest title might be “Increases Penalties for Property Crimes, Decreases K-12 Educational Budget”, as that is the practical effect of the measure. Prior to 2002, they used pay per signature collectors to circulate initiatives, a method designed to encourage deception by the signature collectors. Fortunately, the voters rejected this method by a 3-1 margin. However, conservative measures continue to receive heavy funding from private interests.

The relatively low numbers of signatures required to get an initiative on the ballot in Oregon means that it’s even quite cost effective for conservative interests to get their way through the process.

The reasons for the more modest successes of progressives are more obscure. Money is an obvious culprit. Corporate pro-smoking interests so dominated the public debate on Measure 50 so much that even some non-smokers thought they would see a tax increase if it passed. Progressive measures have also tended to focus on substantive measures that would require state expenditures, such as public election financing and universal health insurance for children, while conservative measures have focused on popular, low-cost restrictions, such as the gay marriage ban. Progressives have also wasted energy on obviously unpopular measures - losing a Measure 11 repeal effort by almost 3-1, labeling of GMO foods by 2-1, a signature increase for initiatives by 1.5-1, and a prohibition on livestock in waterways by almost 2-1. We don’t do the cause any favors by picking dumb fights.

None of those seem to matter as much as the simple gap in organization. 9 of the 10 measures on the November 2008 ballot will be from conservative groups. All 9 come from only 3 sources - Kevin Mannix, Bill Sizemore and Russ Walker. This comes despite the widespread consensus that this will be a huge year for progressive causes. We’re winning on a broad front, but only playing defense on initiatives.

If we want to reverse the trend, we’re going to have to pull it together. We need a group that will employ full-time staff to organize petition drives. Ad hoc organizing for every campaign eats up tremendous amounts of time and energy. We should be smarter about picking causes that will garner widespread support. Not too many people cry when murderers go to prison for life, but almost everyone support better child welfare programs. We must start sooner and keep a consistent message going throughout the campaign. People shouldn’t hear about our measures for the first time at the polls. Opposition research should be part of the process - people should know who is looking out for their interests and who is trying to buy their vote with advertising dollars. Where were the ads of cackling Phillip Morris execs blowing smoke into the faces of sick children in 2006? Why did it take 10 years for us to publicize the fact the Loren Parks, the primary financial backer for many conservative initiatives, has such, ahem, unusual beliefs about human sexuality? We should fight when conservative causes spread false information. Too often, false claims go unanswered in the media. In sum, we need to get organized and focus our efforts if we’re to turn the tide.