Though i love to bash tabloid national news as of late, jack has beaten me to it.

So in other news, a new city of eugene budget committee season kicked off today at our local library. Goal? To start getting ready for the budget that will be coming out in several months, to make amendments, and approve it. We have a different model this year: budgeting for outcomes (BFO), created by PSG. The goal of BFO is to connect budget line items with measures to evaluate the efficacy of these line items. Over time, ideally this makes changes to the budget easier and more tied to what measurable benefits that line-item achieves. My worry currently is that i’ve started hearing back channel information that there have been problems in the past with implementation.

What else to watch for this budget season?

  • The size of this year’s deficit. The forecast is it will pull our “rainy-day” reserves (aka general fund reserves for revenue shortfall) from $6mil to $1.3mil. The year before it was at $12mil. In rosy times, we should be adding to the reserve.
  • The process. Any additions we make, can we make them in the context of a balanced budget? Many additions in previous years come from this rainy day reserve.
  • The forecast’s property tax assumptions. There are two key factors: the growth rate of property tax assessed (4.8%) and the collection rate on this (95%). The increase in assessed property tax includes the almost-guaranteed 3% (due to M50) and 1.8% in the new property tax revenue stream from new construction. The worry is that new construction has already slowed. The collection rate is dependent on people paying and this rate dipped to around 85% in the 80’s during the housing slump then. We are already getting news of increased foreclosures in lane county — and the main culprit, the subprime problems at the national level are only making things worse. Though the years of double digit housing price increases haven’t helped. I could go on about the lack of regulation that led to these subprime loans being deemed safe investments, and the bailouts for the chief offenders.
  • Mike Clark will join the bus project, then become our biggest donor — not in that order.